https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2008-00758-y
Modelling the spread of ragweed: Effects of habitat, climate change and diffusion
1
Fakultät für Physik der Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria
2
Now HASYLAB at DESY, Hamburg, Germany
3
Umweltbundesamt, Vienna, Austria
4
VINCA, Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses, Vienna, Austria
Corresponding author: gero.vogl@univie.ac.at
Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an annual plant
native in North America which has been invading Central Europe for
150 years. Caused by the warming of the European climate its spread
process has accelerated in the last few decades. The pollen of
ragweed evokes heavy allergies and – what probably counts even more
– because of its bloom rather late in summer causes a second wave
of allergy when other pollen allergies have decayed. We have
reconstructed the invasion process of ragweed in Austria by
collecting all records until the year 2005. Austria was subdivided
into more than 2600 grid cells of ≈
each.
Ragweed records were related to environmental descriptors (average
temperatures, land use, etc.) by means of logistic regression
models, and the suitability of grid cells as habitat for ragweed was
determined. This enabled modelling of the diffusive spread of
ragweed from 1990 to 2005. The results of the simulations were
compared with the observed data, and thus the model was optimised.
We then incorporated regional climate change models, in particular
increased July mean temperatures of 
in 2050,
increasing considerably future habitat suitability. This is used for
predicting the drastic dispersal of ragweed during the forthcoming
decades.
© EDP Sciences, Springer-Verlag, 2008
