Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 223, 2493–2501 (2014)
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2014-02276-9

Regular Article

Probabilistic evaluation of interconnectable capacity for wind power generation

Stochastic linearization approach

¹ Kyoto University, 36-1, Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
² Tokyo Denki University, 5, Senju-Asahi-cho, Adachi-ku, Tokyo 120-8551, Japan
³ Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1, O-okayama, Meguro, Tokyo 145-0062, Japan
⁴ The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan

^a e-mail: kashima@amp.i.kyoto-u.ac.jp
^b e-mail: kato@eee.dendai.ac.jp
^c e-mail: imura@mei.titech.ac.jp
^d e-mail: aihara@sat.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Received: 29 December 2013
Revised: 21 April 2014
Published online: 26 September 2014

Abstract

We propose a novel framework for probabilistic evaluation of interconnectable capacity for wind power generation. This is based on mathematical modeling of load frequency control systems, which captures their nonlinear (saturation and rate limiting) dynamical characteristics, and stochastic uncertainty of wind power output deviation. The method called stochastic linearization is used to analyze resulting power quality. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined by numerical simulation.