https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-024-01331-y
Regular Article
Analyzing epidemiological trends in second and third waves of COVID-19 variants in India
Center for Computational Natural Science and Bioinformatics, International Institute of Informational Technology, Professor CR Rao Rd, Gachibowli, 500032, Hyderabad, India
Received:
17
April
2024
Accepted:
7
September
2024
Published online:
23
September
2024
The COVID-19 pandemic wrought havoc across India, particularly during its devastating second and third waves. This study undertakes a crucial epidemiological analysis of these waves, leveraging actual variant count data. Given limited sequencing efforts, variant information is sparse, prompting a novel approach to scaling up with actual case data. Employing a multi-strain variant-level SEIRS model tailored to each Indian state, we modeled the disease’s propagation. We report the estimated parameters of the SEIRS models for the two waves separately. Notably, the transmission coefficients (
) were estimated to be 0.12 for Kappa, 0.35 for Delta, and 0.38 for Omicron. These coefficients signify the contagiousness of each variant, offering critical information for understanding and managing the pandemic’s dynamics. The findings hold significant implications for public health strategies, emphasizing the urgency of comprehensive variant tracking and proactive measures to mitigate the impact of evolving viral strains.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to EDP Sciences, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
